A multivariable hybrid prediction system of wind power based on outlier test and innovative multi-objective optimization

Honggang Guo, Jianzhou Wang, Zhiwu Li and Yu Jin

Energy, 2022, vol. 239, issue PE

Abstract: Wind power forecasting is critical to the safe running of the power grid. However, due to the strong intermittence and instability of wind, reliable forecast of wind power remains a significant difficulty. In this study, a novel multivariable machine learning hybrid prediction system that incorporates data preprocessing, prediction, and multi-objective system optimization is designed to quantify the certainty and uncertainty of wind power. To increase the quality of data input, the data preparation module performs outlier tests based on the correlation between wind power and wind speed, as well as feature extraction, on the original data. In the prediction process, this paper offers an incremental kernel extreme learning machine (IK-elm), the parameters of which are set synchronously by an enhanced multi-objective optimization technique (MOCEHHO) developed in this paper. It overcomes the restrictions of duplicated hidden layer nodes and low learning efficiency caused by classic ELM and successfully maximizes the model's prediction capabilities. The simulation results on four datasets from Turkish wind farms show that the hybrid forecasting system outperforms the benchmark and may be utilized as a useful tool for wind power forecasting.

Keywords: Wind power prediction; Outlier test; Multivariable machine learning; Multi-objective; Optimization algorithm (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (10)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:energy:v:239:y:2022:i:pe:s0360544221025810

DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2021.122333

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