Improving material projections in Integrated Assessment Models: The use of a stock-based versus a flow-based approach for the iron and steel industry

Katerina Kermeli, Oreane Y. Edelenbosch, Wina Crijns-Graus, Bas van Ruijven, Detlef P. van Vuuren and Ernst Worrell

Energy, 2022, vol. 239, issue PE

Abstract: The steel industry is responsible for a large share of the industrial energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions and several long-term energy models have some representation of this sub-sector. It is found that models, commonly use a flow-based approach for projecting steel demand neglecting that in-use steel stocks serve as a better demand indicator than steel consumption. A stock-based method that uses the historical steel stock results from detailed material flow analysis is developed for making steel demand projections and implemented in the IMAGE Integrated Assessment Model. Large differences between the two approaches arise. For the first half of the 21st century, global steel demand increases with both approaches and at a similar rate to reach 2300 Mt/yr by 2050. For the second half of the 21st century, however, the developments differ drastically. With the stock-based approach, global steel demand decreases by 0.8%/a to reach 1600 Mt/yr, while with the flow-based approach it increases by 0.3%/a to reach 2600 Mt/yr in 2100. Given that steel production levels have a profound contribution to greenhouse gas emissions, using the right approach is crucial. This means that long-term energy models may currently overestimate the industrial emissions in the last half of the century.

Keywords: Integrated assessment models; Long-term energy models; Steel industry; Steel demand; Steel stocks (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544221026839
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:energy:v:239:y:2022:i:pe:s0360544221026839

DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2021.122434

Access Statistics for this article

Energy is currently edited by Henrik Lund and Mark J. Kaiser

More articles in Energy from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().