Risk consequence assessment of dam breach in cascade reservoirs considering risk transmission and superposition

Te Wang, Zongkun Li, Wei Ge, Hua Zhang, Yadong Zhang, Heqiang Sun and Yutie Jiao

Energy, 2023, vol. 265, issue C

Abstract: Compared with a single reservoir, the risk in cascade reservoirs has the transmission and superposition effect, which increases the complexity of its risk consequence assessment. In view of this problem, the direct consequence (DC) and potential consequence (PC) were defined as two parts of the dam breach risk consequence of cascade reservoirs. The upstream dam-break flood inundation line and the downstream reservoir land acquisition line were taken as the upper and lower boundaries of the assessment space, which made the risk consequence assessment more intuitive and further improved its scientificity and practicability. Subsequently, the conditional probability of downstream dam breach under the upstream dam-break flood was determined to quantify the risk transmission and superposition. On this basis, the relevant concepts and formulas for calculating the dam breach risk consequence in cascade reservoirs were proposed. Taking five cascade reservoirs as examples, the risk consequences of each cascade dam breach were evaluated. The results show that the proposed method is effective in assessing the risk consequence of dam breach in cascade reservoirs and is more in line with the connotation of dam risk management, which can provide reference for the design and risk control of cascade reservoirs.

Keywords: Cascade reservoirs; Dam breach; Risk transmission; Risk management; Loss (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:energy:v:265:y:2023:i:c:s0360544222032017

DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2022.126315

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