Probabilistic feasibility assessment of sequestration reliance for climate targets

Yolanda Matamala, Francisco Flores, Andrea Arriet, Zarrar Khan and Felipe Feijoo

Energy, 2023, vol. 272, issue C

Abstract: Countries worldwide are transforming their energy systems to achieve Carbon-Neutrality. Investing in renewable resources-based technologies and implementing Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) are common strategies to achieve higher sequestration levels. Negative emissions through Bioenergy with CCS are expected to play an essential role in the transition to full decarbonization. On top of that, biomass is a limited resource that depends on environmental factors, which create uncertainties related to the amount that can be sustainably provided to the energy system. Therefore, this study emphasizes the relevance of variability in carbon sequestration for achieving climate targets by 2050. This paper proposes a probabilistic approach that integrates the Global Change Analysis Model for Latin America (GCAM-LA) with a chance constraint approach. GCAM-LA is used to assess the impact on the energy sector of different limits of sustainable biomass and carbon budget scenarios. The risk associated with exceeding the sequestration capacity of a given region is modeled via Chance Constraint. Results show that electrification is an appropriate long-term decarbonization strategy. It smoothes the effects of uncertainty in sequestration capacity and responds to end-user demands. For this case study, higher levels of electrification are obtained at likelihood levels >66% for end-use sectors.

Keywords: Nationally Determined Contributions; Paris Agreement; Chance Constraint; Carbon Neutrality; Carbon Dioxide Capture and Storage; Negative Emissions (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544223005546
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:energy:v:272:y:2023:i:c:s0360544223005546

DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2023.127160

Access Statistics for this article

Energy is currently edited by Henrik Lund and Mark J. Kaiser

More articles in Energy from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().