Robust assessment of energy scenarios from stakeholders' perspectives

Stefan Vögele, Vishnu Teja Josyabhatla, Christopher Ball, Imke Rhoden, Matthias Grajewski, Dirk Rübbelke and Wilhelm Kuckshinrichs

Energy, 2023, vol. 282, issue C

Abstract: Using scenarios is vital in identifying and specifying measures for successfully transforming the energy system. Such transformations can be particularly challenging and require the support of a broader set of stakeholders. Otherwise, there will be opposition in the form of reluctance to adopt the necessary technologies. Usually, processes for considering stakeholders' perspectives are very time-consuming and costly. In particular, there are uncertainties about how to deal with modifications in the scenarios. In principle, new consulting processes will be required. In our study, we show how multi-criteria decision analysis can be used to analyze stakeholders' attitudes toward transition paths. Since stakeholders differ regarding their preferences and time horizons, we employ a multi-criteria decision analysis approach to identify which stakeholders will support or oppose a transition path. We provide a flexible template for analyzing stakeholder preferences toward transition paths. This flexibility comes from the fact that our multi-criteria decision analysis-based approach does not involve intensive empirical work with stakeholders. Instead, it involves subjecting assumptions to robustness analysis, which can help identify options to influence stakeholders' attitudes toward transitions.

Keywords: Scenario assessment; MCDA; Robustness; Transition paths; Attitudes (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:energy:v:282:y:2023:i:c:s0360544223017206

DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2023.128326

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