A fusion gas load prediction model with three-way residual error amendment

Yu Fang, Chunhong Jia, Xin Wang and Fan Min

Energy, 2024, vol. 294, issue C

Abstract: Accurately predicting gas load is crucial for optimal planning and scheduling of natural gas production. Existing machine learning or deep learning-based prediction methods primarily aim to improve accuracy. However, these methods face challenges such as overlapped features, significant background noise, and residual errors. In response to these challenges, we proposed a fusion prediction model, known as the Double Temporal Convolutional Network (TCN) and Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LightGBM) with Three-way Residual Error Amendment (DT-LGBM-3WREA). To address the overlapped feature issue in time series data, we utilize the STL module for data decomposition. To handle background noise, the network incorporates a double TCN module specifically designed for trend and seasonal components. Thus, it can better avoid the transmission of noise between modules. To address residual error, we introduce three-way decision methodology and develop the 3WREA module, which aims to avoid local optima and random factors from perturbing the prediction accuracy. This approach mitigates the influence of remainder item on overall prediction performance. Experimental results demonstrate that the DT-LGBM-3WREA model excels in gas load prediction scenarios, surpassing state-of-the-art methods.

Keywords: Gas load prediction; Residual error; Three-way decision; Temporal convolutional network (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544224006522
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:energy:v:294:y:2024:i:c:s0360544224006522

DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2024.130880

Access Statistics for this article

Energy is currently edited by Henrik Lund and Mark J. Kaiser

More articles in Energy from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().