Comparison of algorithms for heat load prediction of buildings

Yongjie Wang, Changhong Zhan, Guanghao Li and Shaochen Ren

Energy, 2024, vol. 297, issue C

Abstract: Achieving precision in the prediction of buildings' dynamic heat load is crucial for the advancement of smart heating systems. This research highlights the urgent need to enhance the accuracy of models predicting dynamic heat load. Through literature review, distinguished machine learning and regression algorithms were chosen to formulate prediction models. These models employ a data time-step adaptive strategy, a physics-guided loss function, and fundamental principles of heat transfer. Optimization algorithms of a mathematical nature were utilized to fine-tune the parameters and the framework of long short-term memory (LSTM) and multi-layer perceptron (MLP) models. An analytical comparison was undertaken between physics-guided models and those not guided by physics. Principal conclusions are: 1) Pelican optimization algorithm (POA)-LSTM model emerges as superior in heat load prediction accuracy of an office building, with percentage errors for actual and simulated datasets ranging from −6.7 % to 5.8 % and −5.2 %–4.5 %, respectively, and the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) standing at 2.3 % and 1.3 %. 2) The linear regression model exhibits the lowest precision, with a MAPE of 17.5 % and 4.0 % for the 7-day prediction results in the actual and simulated datasets, respectively. These findings provide support for improving heat load prediction in heating systems.

Keywords: Building; Heat load; Prediction; Physics-guided; Algorithms (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:energy:v:297:y:2024:i:c:s0360544224010910

DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2024.131318

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