Towards carbon neutrality: The decoupling effect of industrial restructuring and non-fossil energy substitution on carbon emissions

Zhijiu Yang, Jiani Duan and Niuniu Fan

Energy, 2024, vol. 308, issue C

Abstract: China's carbon neutrality target requires early carbon decoupling of economic growth. Utilizing the input-output and programming technique, we investigate the carbon mitigation potential of industrial restructuring along with the substitution of non-fossil energy for electric production. Given the constraints of manufacturing stabilization and employment volatility magnitude, this paper finds that industrial restructuring can mitigate carbon emissions by 7.47 %. Besides, non-fossil energy substitution in electric production can strengthen the inhibiting effect, reducing carbon emissions from 7.47 % (currently about 31.5 % for non-fossil power generation) to 28.99 % (about 80 % in the future). This paper also simulates several scenarios for growth rates and estimates the prospective carbon reduction for the fourteenth Five-Year Plan in China. We indicate that the rising share of non-fossil energy is the linchpin to reducing energy-related carbon emissions, which can achieve absolute decoupling if the share of non-fossil energy in power generation reaches 67.1 % under different growth scenarios. This paper argues that carbon-based performance indicators, e.g., carbon intensity and carbon emissions, are more appropriate for local bureaucrats than energy-based ones. We provide valuable implications for the carbon decoupling path.

Keywords: Industrial restructuring; Non-fossil energy substitution; Carbon reduction; Absolute decoupling (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:energy:v:308:y:2024:i:c:s0360544224025611

DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2024.132787

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