Medium and long-term energy demand forecasts by sectors in China under the goal of “carbon peaking & carbon neutrality”: Based on the LEAP-China model

Shanshan Li, Weiling Kong, Yujie Wang and Liang Yuan

Energy, 2024, vol. 310, issue C

Abstract: Energy is a critical material foundation for sustainable economic and social development and national security, and it is of great significance to explore China's medium and long-term energy demand to realize the “dual-carbon” goal. Based on the current state of economic and social development and energy consumption, the LEAP-CHINA model is constructed to create baseline scenario, structural adjustment scenario, technology abatement scenario, and comprehensive scenario to forecast China's total energy demand, end-use industry subsectors, end-use energy subvarieties, processing and conversion sectors from 2022 to 2060. The results show: (1) China's total energy demand showed a “rapid increase before 2039, a slow increase between 2039 and 2049, and a gentle decrease after peaking in 2049". (2) The contribution rate of energy conservation and emission reduction was comprehensive scenario > technology abatement scenario > industrial adjustment scenario > baseline scenario > energy adjustment scenario. (3) Industry was the largest energy demand industry, and the rest of the industries' energy demand share was decreasing. (4) There is a definite trend towards power system decarbonization and energy system electrification, with non-fossil energy power generation anticipated to increase to 78%–82 % in 2060. Finally, it proposes countermeasures for China's energy development in the medium and long-term.

Keywords: Carbon neutrality; LEAP-CHINA model; Processing and conversion sector; Energy by variety; Scenario analysis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:energy:v:310:y:2024:i:c:s0360544224027919

DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2024.133017

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