Analysis of supply-push strategies governing the transition to biofuel vehicles in a market-oriented renewable energy system

Ehsan Shafiei, Brynhildur Davidsdottir, Jonathan Leaver, Hlynur Stefansson, Eyjolfur Ingi Asgeirsson and David R. Keith

Energy, 2016, vol. 94, issue C, 409-421

Abstract: In this paper, the capacity expansion strategies of biofuels supply and the potential for the market development of biofuel vehicles are examined using an integrated System Dynamics model of energy and transport systems for Iceland. The biofuel markets are simulated in the context of a market-based economic system. The demand side enables an endogenous analysis of the road transport sector in which the long-term evolutions of light-duty and heavy-duty vehicle fleets are simulated through a consumer choice algorithm. Two scenarios are defined to support the fuel and infrastructure for biofuel vehicles: i) the Initial Push scenario as a tracking capacity planning strategy with an initial supply momentum, and ii) the Enthusiastic scenario as a leading capacity strategy with a continuous supply push. The results indicate that the dynamics of the bio-diesel market are not highly sensitive to the supply strategies employed. However, changing the capacity planning strategy could significantly influence the medium-term development of biogas as well as the evolution of the bio-ethanol market throughout the planning horizon until 2050. While the Initial Push scenario is less costly from a fuel supply perspective, the Enthusiastic strategy would be advantageous in terms of overall energy and transport benefits.

Keywords: Biofuels; Alternative fuel vehicles; Supply-push; Energy system model; Market simulation; System-Dynamics (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (16)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544215015376
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:energy:v:94:y:2016:i:c:p:409-421

DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2015.11.013

Access Statistics for this article

Energy is currently edited by Henrik Lund and Mark J. Kaiser

More articles in Energy from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().