Output growth in German manufacturing, 1907–1936. A reinterpretation of time-series evidence

Joost Veenstra

Explorations in Economic History, 2015, vol. 57, issue C, 38-49

Abstract: This study uses state space time series analysis to estimate output growth in German manufacturing between 1907 and 1936. In the absence of net-output data, previous research has estimated output change using proxy variables. Various proxy-based output series are available that imply either a 25% German labor-productivity lead over Britain or a parity of performance in 1907. The conventional strategy to deal with this conundrum involves a choice between the series. With the correlation between the different proxies and output unknown, such a choice is inappropriate because it results in the loss of information provided by the rejected proxies. Instead, this study makes full and efficient use of all information by estimating a common component in the various output series. The new estimate of output change implies a German lead over Britain in manufacturing labor productivity of 4.4% in 1907.

Keywords: Time series; state space models; comparative economic history; production; manufacturing; Germany (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C32 L60 N14 N64 O14 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:exehis:v:57:y:2015:i:c:p:38-49

DOI: 10.1016/j.eeh.2015.03.001

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