 A history of aggregate demand and supply shocks for the United Kingdom, 1900 to 2016Robert Calvert Jump and Karsten Kohler Explorations in Economic History, 2022, vol. 85, issue C Abstract: This paper presents a history of aggregate demand and supply shocks spanning 1900 – 2016 for the United Kingdom. Sign restrictions derived from a workhorse Keynesian model are used to identify the signs of those shocks. We compare the 30 largest shocks implied by a vector autoregressive model in unemployment and inflation with the narrative historical record. Our approach provides a new perspective on well-known events in economic history. We highlight two episodes of particular interest: an aggregate supply shock in the late 1920s, which we attribute to changes in the bargaining power of labor, and positive aggregate demand shocks in the mid-1970s, which we attribute to fiscal policy. Keywords: Aggregate demand shocks; Aggregate supply shocks; Sign restrictions; Vector autoregressive model; New Keynesian model; Economic history (search for similar items in EconPapers) Downloads: (external link) Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:exehis:v:85:y:2022:i:c:s001449832200016x DOI: 10.1016/j.eeh.2022.101448 Access Statistics for this article Explorations in Economic History is currently edited by R.H. Steckel More articles in Explorations in Economic History from Elsevier |
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