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Stock market prices and Dividends in the US: Bubbles or Long-run equilibria relationships?

Robinson Dettoni, Luis Gil-Alana and Olaoluwa Yaya

International Review of Financial Analysis, 2024, vol. 94, issue C

Abstract: This paper presents a novel approach to identifying potential bubbles in the US stock market by employing alternative time series methods based on long memory, including fractional integration and cointegration, as well as duration dependence non-parametric models. To test for duration dependence, the paper employs a unique non-parametric hazard function estimation method, using monotonic P-splines, which enables the estimation of a coherent and sophisticated Bayesian confidence interval for the function. By analyzing historical data of real US stock index from January 1871 to November 2022, the results reveal strong evidence of bubbles in the US stock market. It is worth noting that this is the first time a fractional integration approach and a novel non-parametric hazard function have been utilized to test for rational speculative bubbles in the US stock market, making this paper a significant contribution to the field.

Keywords: Stock market prices; Dividends; Fractional cointegration; Duration dependence models (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C22 C41 C58 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:finana:v:94:y:2024:i:c:s1057521924002515

DOI: 10.1016/j.irfa.2024.103319

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