Is fertility a leading indicator for stock returns?

Gertjan Verdickt

Finance Research Letters, 2020, vol. 33, issue C

Abstract: If fertility behavior is closely related to business cycle behavior, there should be evidence in financial markets. I document that a decrease in fertility growth negatively forecasts real excess returns, several months ahead. More interestingly, this effect is not yet captured by demographic, business cycle or confidence metrics. The relationship is robust in specific subsamples. Overall, this suggests that fertility growth is a leading indicator for recessions.

Keywords: Fertility growth; Business cycle; Recession; Return predictability (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: G12 G17 J11 J13 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:finlet:v:33:y:2020:i:c:s1544612318309115

DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2019.06.001

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