Can Bitcoin Investors Profit from Predictions by Crypto Experts?

Dirk Gerritsen, Rick A.C. Lugtigheid and Thomas Walther

Finance Research Letters, 2022, vol. 46, issue PA

Abstract: Using a hand-collected dataset containing bullish, neutral, and bearish predictions for Bitcoin published by crypto experts, we show that neutral and bearish predictions are followed by negative abnormal returns whereas bullish predictions are not associated with nonzero abnormal returns. Based on all outstanding predictions, we compute prediction revisions relative to (i) the latest issued prediction and (ii) the outstanding consensus prediction. Downward revisions are followed by negative abnormal returns. We conclude that crypto experts are skilled information intermediaries on the Bitcoin market.

Keywords: Bitcoin; Experts; Analysts; Market efficiency; Predictions; Forecasts; Cryptocurrencies (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: G14 G24 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (6)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:finlet:v:46:y:2022:i:pa:s1544612321003081

DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2021.102266

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