Exploiting the persistence in managerial market timing

Shingo Goto and Vitali Kalesnik

Finance Research Letters, 2022, vol. 46, issue PB

Abstract: Some firms time their share issuances/repurchases using their private information while others do not. We identify successful timers by comparing a cash-flow-based measure of net share issuance (NSI) with a share-based measure. Recent successful timers—only a small fraction (23%)—drive the known return predictability of NSI in the following year. The evidence suggests that the stock market underreacts to the persistence of managerial market-timing, providing significant opportunities for investors to mimic successful market-timing in their investment strategies. A value-weighted NSI hedge portfolio formed only on recent successful timers earns a six-factor alpha of 11.8% a year after transaction costs.

Keywords: G10; G14 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:finlet:v:46:y:2022:i:pb:s1544612321003792

DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2021.102377

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