The world uncertainty index and GDP growth rate

Na Liu and Fumin Gao

Finance Research Letters, 2022, vol. 49, issue C

Abstract: Based on the content of the novel World Uncertainty Index (WUI), this paper examines whether the World Uncertainty Index has the predictability for the U.S. gross domestic product growth rate. Empirical results show that the information of WUI indices is able to predict GDP growth rate, especially the U.S. WUI indices such as USA WUI (frequency) and USA WUI (total number) indices. During the COVID-19 period, we find that all the WUI models can generate stronger forecasting ability for the GDP growth rate. Our paper tries to provide new evidence for predicting the GDP growth rate.

Keywords: GDP growth rate; World uncertainty index; COVID-19 pandemic (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:finlet:v:49:y:2022:i:c:s1544612322003609

DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2022.103137

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