 The informational role of fund flow in the profitable predictability of mutual fundsEhab Yamani Finance Research Letters, 2023, vol. 51, issue C Abstract: This study examines if mutual fund flow information can be exploited as a predictor for future fund performance, and if an economically profitable trading strategy can be executed. My central finding is that investors can improve their fund selection ability and beat the market conditional on correctly predicting the direction of the forecasted fund returns induced by fund flows in an out-of-sample (OOS) forecasting context. Viewed through this lens, I design a long-short trading strategy within a simulated investment portfolio, where a fund trader establishes long position in funds deemed to be “expected winners” (i.e., funds with predicted positive returns), and short position in funds deemed to be “expected losers” (i.e., funds with predicted negative returns). This forward-looking strategy generates significant risk-adjusted profits which endure after controlling for various fund characteristics, macroeconomic variables, trading dynamics, and fund investment styles. This evidence, on the informational role of fund flow, provides important insights to academic researchers and practitioners. Keywords: Mutual funds; Fund flow; Performance-flow relationship; Forecasting (search for similar items in EconPapers) Downloads: (external link) Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:finlet:v:51:y:2023:i:c:s1544612322006225 DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2022.103445 Access Statistics for this article Finance Research Letters is currently edited by R. Gençay More articles in Finance Research Letters from Elsevier |
Is your work missing from RePEc? Here is how to contribute.
Questions or problems? Check the EconPapers FAQ or send mail to .
EconPapers is hosted by the
School of Business at Örebro University.