No reward—no effort: Will Bitcoin collapse near to the year 2140?

Klaus Grobys

Finance Research Letters, 2024, vol. 63, issue C

Abstract: This paper explores whether the overall evolution of Bitcoin log-prices would manifest a log-period power-law singularity (LPPLS) signature, eventually resulting in the arrival of a finite-time singularity. Calibrating the LPPLS model using daily data on Bitcoin covering the 2011—2023 period, this study indeed finds evidence for a strong LPPLS signature suggesting the arrival of a spontaneous singularity in the year 2129. Further striking evidence suggests that Bitcoin will experience what we term a close-to-singularity-condition near to the year 2050—a remarkable coincidence with the recently documented arrival of a finite-time singularity in U.S. equities.

Keywords: Bitcoin; Bubble; Collapse; Expected value; Log-periodicity; Finite-time singularity (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C22 G12 G13 G14 O10 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:finlet:v:63:y:2024:i:c:s1544612324003246

DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2024.105294

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