Near-term forward rate spread and commodity index relationship with real economic activity in Brazil

Johnny Barrelli Schlömer, Rafael Baptista Palazzi and Marcelo Cabus Klotzle

Finance Research Letters, 2024, vol. 65, issue C

Abstract: This study investigates the relationship between Brazilian economic cycles and two key indicators: the international S&P GSCI commodity index and the near-term forward spread derived from the Brazilian interest rate term structure. We find that the forward spread serves as a robust leading indicator of economic downturns in Brazil, offering recession forecasts up to four quarters in advance. This underscores a link between yield curve steepness and recession likelihood in Brazil. However, we uncover distinct cyclical behaviors in Brazil's term structure that diverge from patterns in the United States. Furthermore, our research reveals the significant influence of commodity price fluctuations on Brazil's economic performance, underscoring a strong correlation between commodity markets and economic outcomes. Examining term structure and commodity prices together provides novel insights into monitoring emerging market cycles. These indicators can assist policymakers and improve early warning systems, especially in developing economies like Brazil.

Keywords: Interest rates; Term spread; Commodities; Business cycles (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:finlet:v:65:y:2024:i:c:s1544612324005130

DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2024.105483

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