Oil market regulatory: An ensembled model for prediction

Haixin Chen, Yancheng Liu, Xiangjie Li, Xiang Gu and Kun Fan

Finance Research Letters, 2024, vol. 67, issue PA

Abstract: This study develops an ensemble framework combining phase space reconstruction and support vector machines to predict oil prices, crucial for economic regulation in energy markets. We analyzed five representative crude oils from spot and futures markets. Our method provides reliable 18-day predictions, demonstrating robustness against non-stationary, noisy data. Compared to traditional models, it shows superior performance, enhancing market stability and surveillance. This research offers a valuable predictive tool for policymakers and market participants, supporting informed decision-making in economic governance.

Keywords: Oil price forecasting; Phase space reconstruction; Support vector machines (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:finlet:v:67:y:2024:i:pa:s1544612324008195

DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2024.105789

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