The double materiality of climate physical and transition risks in the euro area

Régis Gourdel, Irene Monasterolo, Nepomuk Dunz, Andrea Mazzocchetti and Laura Parisi

Journal of Financial Stability, 2024, vol. 71, issue C

Abstract: We analyse the double materiality of climate physical and transition risks in the euro area economy and banking sector. First, by tailoring the EIRIN Stock-Flow Consistent behavioural model, we provide a dynamic balance sheet assessment of the Network for Greening the Financial System (NGFS) scenarios. We find that an orderly transition achieves early co-benefits by reducing CO2 emissions (12% less in 2040 than in 2020) while supporting growth in economic output. In contrast, a disorderly transition worsens the economic performance and financial stability of the euro area. Further, in a disorderly transition with higher physical risks, real GDP decreases by 12.5% in 2050 relative to an orderly transition. Second, we analyse how firms’ expectations about climate policy credibility (climate sentiments) affect investment decisions in high or low-carbon goods. Firms that trust an orderly policy introduction do anticipate the carbon tax and switch earlier to low-carbon investments. This, in turn, accelerates economic decarbonization and decreases the risk of carbon-stranded assets for investors. Our results highlight the crucial role of early and credible climate policies to signal investment decisions in the low-carbon transition.

Keywords: Double materiality; NGFS climate scenarios; Climate sentiments; Policy credibility; Stock-Flow Consistent model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: B59 Q50 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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Working Paper: The double materiality of climate physical and transition risks in the euro area (2022)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:finsta:v:71:y:2024:i:c:s1572308924000184

DOI: 10.1016/j.jfs.2024.101233

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