Forecasting the German forest products trade: A vector error correction model

Horst Kolo and Polia Tzanova

Journal of Forest Economics, 2017, vol. 26, issue C, 30-45

Abstract: In the forest sector often very complex models are used that take into account a variety of factors. In addition to variables that describe the natural production of wood, into these models flow among others also such variables that depict nature conservation legislation, market contexts, etc. The limited availability of large amounts of data and more particularly of precise data to all these subject areas considerably weakens the validity of the models. Our study therefore takes up the challenge to develop a model, as simple as possible, that can help to estimate export and import volumes as well as export and import prices of raw timber in Germany. To this end, we apply the technique of time series analysis and develop a simple model that allows for short-term and medium-term forecasting in the German forest sector. We show that using a vector error correction model (VECM) can succeed in a relatively simple modelling of future quantities and prices of raw timber for Germany.

Keywords: Forecasts for German forest sector; Forest sector models; VECM; Raw timber; German timber market (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C32 C53 E37 L73 Q23 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (6)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1104689916300770
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:foreco:v:26:y:2017:i:c:p:30-45

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/701775/bibliographic
http://www.elsevier. ... 701775/bibliographic

DOI: 10.1016/j.jfe.2016.11.001

Access Statistics for this article

Journal of Forest Economics is currently edited by P. Gong and R. Brännlund

More articles in Journal of Forest Economics from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().