Geopolitical risk perceptions

Yevheniia Bondarenko, Vivien Lewis, Matthias Rottner and Yves Schüler

Journal of International Economics, 2024, vol. 152, issue C

Abstract: Geopolitical risk cannot be measured in a universal way. We develop new geopolitical risk indicators relying on local newspaper coverage to account for different perceptions. Using Russia as a case study, we demonstrate that geopolitical risk shocks identified from local news sources have significant adverse effects on the Russian economy, whereas geopolitical risk shocks identified from English-language news sources do not. We control for restricted press freedom by analyzing state-controlled and independent media separately. Employing a novel Russian sanctions index, we illustrate that geopolitical risk shocks propagate beyond the sanctions channel. Still, sanctions worsen the inflationary impact of geopolitical risk shocks substantially.

Keywords: Geopolitical risk; Risk perceptions; Russia; Sanctions; Shock transmission (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E32 E44 E71 F44 F51 G41 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (5)

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Working Paper: Geopolitical risk perceptions (2024)
Working Paper: Geopolitical Risk Perceptions (2023)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:inecon:v:152:y:2024:i:c:s0022199624001326

DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104005

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