Parametric mortality improvement rate modelling and projecting

Steven Haberman and Arthur Renshaw

Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, 2012, vol. 50, issue 3, 309-333

Abstract: We investigate the modelling of mortality improvement rates and the feasibility of projecting mortality improvement rates (as opposed to projecting mortality rates), using parametric predictor structures that are amenable to simple time series forecasting. This leads to our proposing a parallel dual approach to the direct parametric modelling and projecting of mortality rates. Comparisons of simulated life expectancy predictions (by the cohort method) using the England and Wales population mortality experiences for males and females under a variety of controlled data trimming exercises are presented in detail and comparisons are also made between the parallel modelling approaches.

Date: 2012
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:insuma:v:50:y:2012:i:3:p:309-333

DOI: 10.1016/j.insmatheco.2011.11.005

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