 The economics of sharing macro-longevity riskDirk Broeders, Roel Mehlkopf and Annick van Ool Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, 2021, vol. 99, issue C, 440-458 Abstract: Pension funds face macro-longevity risk or uncertainty about future mortality rates. We analyze macro-longevity risk sharing between cohorts in a pension scheme as a risk management tool. We show that the optimal risk-sharing rule and the welfare gains from risk sharing largely depend on the retirement age policy. In case of a fixed retirement age welfare gains from sharing macro-longevity risk measured on a 10-year horizon are between 0.1 and 0.3 percent of certainty equivalent consumption after retirement for each cohort. By contrast, if the retirement age is fully linked to changes in life expectancy, welfare gains are substantially higher. In this case the risk bearing capacity of workers is particularly large because their labor supply acts as a hedge against macro-longevity risk. As a result, workers absorb risk from retirees in the optimal risk-sharing rule, thereby increasing the welfare gain for each cohort up to 1.8 percent in the Lee–Carter mortality model and up to 2.9 percent in the Cairns–Blake–Dowd model. Keywords: Macro-longevity risk; Risk sharing; Welfare analysis; Retirement age; Pension plans (search for similar items in EconPapers) Downloads: (external link) Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:insuma:v:99:y:2021:i:c:p:440-458 DOI: 10.1016/j.insmatheco.2021.03.024 Access Statistics for this article Insurance: Mathematics and Economics is currently edited by R. Kaas, Hansjoerg Albrecher, M. J. Goovaerts and E. S. W. Shiu More articles in Insurance: Mathematics and Economics from Elsevier |
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