 Forecasting outcomes in tennis matches using within-match betting marketsStephen Easton and Katherine Uylangco International Journal of Forecasting, 2010, vol. 26, issue 3, 564-575 Abstract: Klaassen and Magnus (2003) provide a model of the probability of a given player winning a tennis match, with the prediction updated on a point-by-point basis. This paper provides a point-by-point comparison of that model with the probability of a given player winning the match, as implied by betting odds. The predictions implied by the betting odds match the model predictions closely, with an extremely high correlation being found between the model and the betting market. The results for both men's and women's matches also suggest that there is a high level of efficiency in the betting market, demonstrating that betting markets are a good predictor of the outcomes of tennis matches. The significance of service breaks and service being held is anticipated up to four points prior to the end of the game. However, the tendency of players to lose more points than would be expected after conceding a break of service is not captured instantaneously in betting odds. In contrast, there is no evidence of a biased reaction to a player winning a game on service. Keywords: Prediction; markets; Market; efficiency; Market; microstructure; Betting; exchange; Betfair (search for similar items in EconPapers) Downloads: (external link) Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:intfor:v:26:y::i:3:p:564-575 Access Statistics for this article International Journal of Forecasting is currently edited by R. J. Hyndman More articles in International Journal of Forecasting from Elsevier |
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