Comparison of intraday probabilistic forecasting of solar irradiance using only endogenous data

Mathieu David, Mazorra Aguiar Luis and Philippe Lauret

International Journal of Forecasting, 2018, vol. 34, issue 3, 529-547

Abstract: Accurate solar forecasts are necessary to improve the integration of solar renewables into the energy grid. In recent years, numerous methods have been developed for predicting the solar irradiance or the output of solar renewables. By definition, a forecast is uncertain. Thus, the models developed predict the mean and the associated uncertainty. Comparisons are therefore necessary and useful for assessing the skill and accuracy of these new methods in the field of solar energy.

Keywords: Solar forecasting; Time series; Very short term horizons; Probabilistic forecasting; Prediction intervals (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (15)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:intfor:v:34:y:2018:i:3:p:529-547

DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2018.02.003

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