Measuring connectedness of euro area sovereign risk

Rebekka Buse and Melanie Schienle

International Journal of Forecasting, 2019, vol. 35, issue 1, 25-44

Abstract: We introduce a method for measuring the default risk connectedness of euro zone sovereign states using credit default swap (CDS) and bond data. The connectedness measure is based on an out-of-sample variance decomposition of model forecast errors. Due to its predictive nature, it can respond to crisis occurrences more quickly than common in-sample techniques. We determine the sovereign default risk connectedness using both CDS and bond data in order to obtain a more comprehensive picture of the system. We find evidence that there are several observable factors that drive the difference between CDS and bonds, but both data sources still contain specific information for connectedness spill-overs. In general, we can identify countries that impose risk on the system and the respective spill-over channels. Our empirical analysis covers the years 2009–2014, such that the recovery paths of countries exiting EU and IMF financial assistance schemes and the responses to the ECB’s unconventional policy measures can be analyzed.

Keywords: Variance decomposition; Sovereign risk; Connectedness; Credit default swaps; Bonds; Eurozone crisis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (14)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:intfor:v:35:y:2019:i:1:p:25-44

DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2018.07.010

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