 Macroeconomic news and market reaction: Surprise indexes meet nowcastingInternational Journal of Forecasting, 2019, vol. 35, issue 4, 1725-1734 Abstract: Market operators monitor a massive flow of macroeconomic news every day and react to the unexpected component of each release. Can we replicate the market’s pricing of macroeconomic news automatically? This paper shows that a “Nowcasting Surprise Index”, constructed by aggregating forecast errors from a nowcasting model using model-based weights, resembles the surprise indexes proposed in the recent literature or constructed by practitioners, which cumulate survey-based forecast errors weighted by using the average effect of news on asset prices. This suggests that market operators and a nowcasting model filter the macroeconomic data flow similarly and confirms the link between news about macroeconomic indicators and asset prices. Moreover, the paper shows that recent cumulated news in macroeconomic data, which carry information about the underlying state of the economy, accounts for a non-negligible part of asset price behaviour. Keywords: Macroeconomic news; Macroeconomic forecasting; Surveys; Dynamic factor model; Asset prices (search for similar items in EconPapers) Downloads: (external link) Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:intfor:v:35:y:2019:i:4:p:1725-1734 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2018.12.005 Access Statistics for this article International Journal of Forecasting is currently edited by R. J. Hyndman More articles in International Journal of Forecasting from Elsevier |
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