On single point forecasts for fat-tailed variables

Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Yaneer Bar-Yam and Pasquale Cirillo

International Journal of Forecasting, 2022, vol. 38, issue 2, 413-422

Abstract: We discuss common errors and fallacies when using naive “evidence based” empiricism and point forecasts for fat-tailed variables, as well as the insufficiency of using naive first-order scientific methods for tail risk management.

Keywords: COVID-19; Forecasting; Debate; Evidence-based science; Tail risk; Risk fallacies (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (6)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:intfor:v:38:y:2022:i:2:p:413-422

DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2020.08.008

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