Prospects for a re-acceleration of economic growth in the PRC

Justin Lin (), Guanghua Wan and Peter Morgan

Journal of Comparative Economics, 2016, vol. 44, issue 4, 842-853

Abstract: After more than three decades of unprecedented high growth at an average rate of nearly 10% per annum, China's economy has been slowing down since 2010, dropping to 6.9% in 2015, the lowest annual growth rate since 1990. As the world's largest economy in PPP terms and the second largest in terms of nominal exchange rates, such a slowdown has profound implications. The whole world is asking if the Chinese economy will continue to slow or be trapped in low growth. This paper presents a rather optimistic outlook for the Chinese economy, concluding that a reacceleration to 8% in the medium run is possible under favorable conditions. We argue that the main factors that led to the slowdown since 2010 are external and cyclical. Nevertheless, structural and institutional obstacles to the re-acceleration of growth are also discussed, together with policy suggestions.

Keywords: People’s Republic of China; Medium term growth; Supply-side factors; Demand-side factors; Total factor productivity (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O11 O14 O15 O16 O17 O47 O53 O57 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (23)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:jcecon:v:44:y:2016:i:4:p:842-853

DOI: 10.1016/j.jce.2016.08.006

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