 Aggregate data yield biased estimates of voter preferencesCorey Lang and Shanna Pearson-Merkowitz Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 2022, vol. 111, issue C Abstract: Voter preferences and valuation of public goods are often estimated using aggregated votes matched with Census data at the same spatial scale. However, this method may yield biased estimates for two reasons we examine in this paper: using Census data ignores the selection process of who votes, and relying on comparisons between aggregated units makes models susceptible to omitted variable bias. To assess bias, we use both Monte Carlo simulation and a case study regarding a statewide environmental bond referendum for which we have collected aggregate data and individual exit poll data. Our results confirm the two sources of bias and show that aggregate model regression coefficients can be incorrect in magnitude and even sign. We conclude that using aggregate data will likely lead to incorrect assessment of valuation and distributional impacts of public good provision. Keywords: Valuation; Voting; Referendum; Ecological fallacy; Aggregation bias (search for similar items in EconPapers) Downloads: (external link) Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:jeeman:v:111:y:2022:i:c:s009506962100142x DOI: 10.1016/j.jeem.2021.102604 Access Statistics for this article Journal of Environmental Economics and Management is currently edited by M.A. Cole, A. Lange, D.J. Phaneuf, D. Popp, M.J. Roberts, M.D. Smith, C. Timmins, Q. Weninger and A.J. Yates More articles in Journal of Environmental Economics and Management from Elsevier |
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