God is in the rain: The impact of rainfall-induced early social distancing on COVID-19 outbreaks

Ajay Shenoy, Bhavyaa Sharma, Guanghong Xu, Rolly Kapoor, Haedong Aiden Rho and Kinpritma Sangha

Journal of Health Economics, 2022, vol. 81, issue C

Abstract: We measure the benefit to society created by preventing COVID-19 deaths through a marginal increase in early social distancing. We exploit county-level rainfall on the last weekend before statewide lockdown in the early phase of the pandemic. After controlling for historical rainfall, temperature, and state fixed-effects, current rainfall is a plausibly exogenous instrument for social distancing. A one percent decrease in the population leaving home on the weekend before lockdown creates an average of 132 dollars of benefit per county resident within 2 weeks. The impacts of earlier distancing compound over time and mainly arise from lowering the risk of a major outbreak, yielding large but unevenly distributed social benefit.

Keywords: COVID-19; Coronavirus; Social distancing; Rainfall (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: H75 I12 I18 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:jhecon:v:81:y:2022:i:c:s0167629621001600

DOI: 10.1016/j.jhealeco.2021.102575

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