What type of information calls the attention of forecasters? Evidence from survey data in an emerging market

Helder de Mendonça (), Luciano Vereda and Mateus de Azevedo Araujo
Authors registered in the RePEc Author Service: Luciano Vereda Oliveira

Journal of International Money and Finance, 2022, vol. 129, issue C

Abstract: This article analyzes the daily determinants of the degree of attention dedicated to the forecasts of three macroeconomic indicators: inflation, exchange rate, and output growth. Based on micro-data of expectations provided by the Central Bank of Brazil, we calculated two measures of the degree of attention: “active participation” and “update forecasts”. In addition, we present various stylized facts and perform several regressions that explain the daily degree of attention dedicated to forecasts taking into account: routine and horizons, incentives, risk, and information release events. The findings show that the main aspects that can increase the attention are: routines, incentive events, and releases of direct information regarding the macroeconomic indicator under consideration. Moreover, information concerning monetary policy decisions increases the degree of attention.

Keywords: Degree of attention; Macroeconomic indicators forecasts; Incentives; Information release (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:129:y:2022:i:c:s0261560622001255

DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2022.102722

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