Do term premiums matter? Transmission via exchange rate dynamics

Mitsuru Katagiri and Koji Takahashi

Journal of International Money and Finance, 2023, vol. 139, issue C

Abstract: The macroeconomic effect of term premiums is a controversial issue both theoretically and quantitatively. In this paper, we explore the possibility that term premiums affect inflation and the real economy via exchange rate dynamics. For this purpose, we construct a small open economy model with limited asset market participation, focusing on the empirical observation that uncovered interest parity holds better for longer-term interest rate differentials. A quantitative exercise using Japanese and U.S. data shows that changes in term premiums, particularly those made by the central bank's bond purchases, have sizable effects on Japanese inflation rates via exchange rate dynamics.

Keywords: Term premium; Uncovered interest rate parity; Quantitative easing (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E31 E52 E58 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:139:y:2023:i:c:s0261560623001481

DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2023.102947

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