Debt thresholds and real exchange rates: An emerging markets perspective

Vahagn Galstyan and Adnan Velic

Journal of International Money and Finance, 2017, vol. 70, issue C, 452-470

Abstract: In this paper we empirically analyze nonlinearities in short-run real exchange rate dynamics. Our findings suggest that real exchange rate misalignments are considerably less persistent and more volatile during times of high debt. Assessing the variance of changes in misalignments, we retrieve evidence indicating that the nominal exchange rate and inflation differentials are more important determinants in states of high debt than in states of low debt. Overall, our results imply that nonlinearities have non-negligible implications for the mechanics of real exchange rate adjustment in emerging markets.

Keywords: Public debt; External debt; Real exchange rate; Nonlinearities (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F00 F41 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (7)

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Working Paper: Debt Thresholds and Real Exchange Rates: An Emerging Markets Perspective (2016)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:70:y:2017:i:c:p:452-470

DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2016.06.012

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