Short and medium term financial-real cycles: An empirical assessment

Engelbert Stockhammer, Robert Calvert Jump, Karsten Kohler and Julian Cavallero

Journal of International Money and Finance, 2019, vol. 94, issue C, 81-96

Abstract: Theories such as Minsky’s financial instability hypothesis or New Keynesian financial accelerator models assign a key role to financial factors in business cycle dynamics. We propose a simple VAR-based estimation framework to examine some of the financial-real interaction mechanisms that are at the core of these theories. We examine cycle frequencies in seven OECD countries over the period 1970–2015, and find that output contains short- and medium business cycle frequencies, while interest rates, business debt, and household debt exhibit short-, medium- and long cycles, respectively. We find robust evidence for financial-real interaction mechanisms (i) at high frequencies between interest rates and GDP in Australia and the USA and (ii) at medium frequencies between business debt and GDP in Canada and Great Britain. The effect of interest rates and debt seems to operate via investment rather than consumption. We find no evidence for an interaction mechanism between household debt and GDP. Our results provide support for Minskyan and financial accelerator models in which output interacts with interest rates or corporate debt.

Keywords: Minsky; Financial accelerator; Financial cycle; Business cycle (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E32 G01 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (12)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0261560618303474
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
Working Paper: Short and medium term financial-real cycles: An empirical assessment (2018)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:94:y:2019:i:c:p:81-96

DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2019.02.006

Access Statistics for this article

Journal of International Money and Finance is currently edited by J. R. Lothian

More articles in Journal of International Money and Finance from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().