The Fed's perceived Phillips curve: Evidence from individual FOMC forecasts

Peter Tillmann

Journal of Macroeconomics, 2010, vol. 32, issue 4, 1008-1013

Abstract: This paper uncovers the Phillips curve trade-off perceived by US monetary policymakers. For that purpose we use data on individual forecasts for unemployment and inflation submitted by each individual FOMC member, which was recently made available for the period 1992-1998. The results point to significant changes in the perceived trade-off over time with the Phillips curve flattening and the implied NAIRU falling towards the second half of the sample. Hence, the results suggest that policymakers were aware of these changes in real-time.

Keywords: Inflation; forecast; NAIRU; Phillips; curve; Real-time; data; Federal; Reserve (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2010
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (17)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0164-0704(10)00065-0
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
Working Paper: The Fed’s perceived Phillips curve: Evidence from individual FOMC forecasts (2009)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:jmacro:v:32:y:2010:i:4:p:1008-1013

Access Statistics for this article

Journal of Macroeconomics is currently edited by Douglas McMillin and Theodore Palivos

More articles in Journal of Macroeconomics from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().