A biannual recession-forecasting model

Rolando F. Peláez

Journal of Macroeconomics, 2015, vol. 45, issue C, 384-393

Abstract: The model predicts out-of-sample whether an NBER-defined peak or trough will occur within the next half-year. It yields a 100% proportion of correct recursive forecasts from 1970 to 2015. All the necessary data are readily available in un-revised form.

Keywords: Business cycles; Forecasting recessions; Econometric models (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C25 E32 E37 E58 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:jmacro:v:45:y:2015:i:c:p:384-393

DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2015.07.002

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