Modest macroeconomic effects of monetary policy shocks during the great moderation: An alternative interpretation

Efrem Castelnuovo

Journal of Macroeconomics, 2016, vol. 47, issue PB, 300-314

Abstract: Cholesky-VAR impulse responses estimated with post-1984 U.S. data predict modest macroeconomic reactions to monetary policy shocks. We interpret this evidence by employing an estimated medium-scale DSGE model of the business cycle as a Data-Generating Process in a Monte Carlo exercise in which a Cholesky-VAR econometrician is asked to estimate the effects of an unexpected, temporary increase in the policy rate. Our structural DSGE model predicts conventional macroeconomic reactions to a policy shock. In contrast, our Monte Carlo VAR results replicate our evidence obtained with actual U.S. data. Hence, modest macroeconomic effects may very well be an artifact of Cholesky-VARs. A combination of supply and demand shocks may be behind the inability of Cholesky-VARs to replicate the actual macroeconomic responses. The difference in the VAR responses obtained with Great Inflation vs. Great Moderation data may be due to instabilities in the parameters related to households’ and firms’ programs, more than to a more aggressive systematic monetary policy. A Monte Carlo assessment of sign restrictions as an alternative identification strategy is also proposed.

Keywords: Monetary policy shocks; Cholesky identification; VARs; Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium models; Monte Carlo simulations (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C3 E3 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (8)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0164070415001184
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
Working Paper: Modest Macroeconomic Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks during the Great Moderation: An Alternative Interpretation (2016)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:jmacro:v:47:y:2016:i:pb:p:300-314

DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2015.10.002

Access Statistics for this article

Journal of Macroeconomics is currently edited by Douglas McMillin and Theodore Palivos

More articles in Journal of Macroeconomics from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().