 The shape of recovery: Implications of past experience for the duration of the COVID-19 recessionBarry Eichengreen, Donghyun Park and Kwanho Shin Journal of Macroeconomics, 2021, vol. 69, issue C Abstract: In this paper we seek to make headway on the question of what recovery from Covid-19 recession may look like, focusing on the duration of the recovery – that is, how long it will take to re-attain the levels of output and employment reached at the prior business cycle peak. We start by categorizing all post-1960 recessions in advanced countries and emerging markets into supply-shock, demand-shock and both-shock induced recessions. We measure recovery duration as the number of years required to re-attain pre-recession levels of output or employment. We then rely on the earlier literature on business cycle dynamics to identify candidate variables that can help to account for variations in recovery duration following different kinds of shocks. By asking which of these variables are operative in the Covid-19 recession, we can then draw inferences about the duration of the recovery under different scenarios. A number of our statistical results point in the direction of lengthy recoveries. Keywords: Duration of recoveries; COVID-19; Output; Employment; Emerging markets (search for similar items in EconPapers) Downloads: (external link) Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:jmacro:v:69:y:2021:i:c:s0164070421000367 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2021.103330 Access Statistics for this article Journal of Macroeconomics is currently edited by Douglas McMillin and Theodore Palivos More articles in Journal of Macroeconomics from Elsevier |
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