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Macroeconomic impacts of changes in life expectancy and fertility

David Miles

The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, 2023, vol. 24, issue C

Abstract: This paper analyses economic implications of the different ways in which the population structure of countries becomes older: longer lives and declines in fertility both generate ageing populations but have very different impacts upon the aggregate population. If lower fertility persists populations in many countries will decline. Having reviewed the evidence for this, I consider both why fertility rates have fallen and may stay low. I then analyse the economic implications of populations that may stop growing and start to fall, focusing on how this may play out in the UK. I consider policy implications of such a demographic shift. Despite many predictions of the dire consequences of falling populations the economic impacts are likely, on balance, to be positive.

Keywords: Demographics; Fertility; Economic growth (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: J11 J13 J18 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:joecag:v:24:y:2023:i:c:s2212828x22000573

DOI: 10.1016/j.jeoa.2022.100425

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The Journal of the Economics of Ageing is currently edited by D.E. Bloom, A. Sousa-Poza and U. Sunde

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