 Population age structure and secular stagnation: Evidence from long run dataThe Journal of the Economics of Ageing, 2023, vol. 24, issue C Abstract: A large literature has reopened the secular stagnation hypothesis, first proposed near the end of the great depression as a warning for anemic growth resulting from long run trends in population aging. In this paper, I explore the relationship between population age structure and growth in: investment, consumption and output, in a long run panel of advanced economies. The evidence is largely consistent with proposed channels for secular stagnation. Investment growth, in its level and as a fraction of GDP, appears much stronger in young populations, while facing demographic headwinds in older economies. Consumption and output growth are positively associated with late career workers, with a negative relationship coming from both young and old dependents. Consistent with the recent secular stagnation literature, interest rate channels appear to have strong interactions with population age structures. I find that for investment and output growth, estimated impacts of age-structure are more pronounced in low interest rate environments, with high rates mitigating some of their effect. Keywords: Secular stagnation; Demographic transition; Population aging; Economic growth (search for similar items in EconPapers) Downloads: (external link) Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:joecag:v:24:y:2023:i:c:s2212828x23000026 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeoa.2023.100442 Access Statistics for this article The Journal of the Economics of Ageing is currently edited by D.E. Bloom, A. Sousa-Poza and U. Sunde More articles in The Journal of the Economics of Ageing from Elsevier |
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