The impact of population aging in rich countries: What’s the future?

Evangelia Papapetrou and Pinelopi Tsalaporta

Journal of Policy Modeling, 2020, vol. 42, issue 1, 77-95

Abstract: The paper examines the impact of population ageing on macroeconomic outcomes, inflation and labour force participation employing a sample of 23 OECD developed countries from 1960 to 2014 and accounting for the institutional context. Controlling for collective bargaining coordination the results show that a larger elderly share of population would lead to lower real GDP growth, albeit mostly in countries with low population growth rates. Ageing puts substantial downward pressure on inflation due to subdued aggregate demand. Also, results demonstrate that the ageing of the workforce tends to reduce labour supply. To mitigate any adverse effects of population ageing, a combination of labour market policies, pension reforms, greater investment in human capital and technological innovation should be prioritized in policy making.

Keywords: Demographic trends; Population ageing; Macroeconomic performance; Collective bargaining (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E2 E52 J11 J5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0161893820300028
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:jpolmo:v:42:y:2020:i:1:p:77-95

DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2019.12.002

Access Statistics for this article

Journal of Policy Modeling is currently edited by A. M. Costa

More articles in Journal of Policy Modeling from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().