Who wins from an FTA induced revival of world trade?

Fritz Breuss

Journal of Policy Modeling, 2022, vol. 44, issue 3, 653-674

Abstract: The last decade has been characterized by a slowdown in globalization, referred to by some as "slowbalisation" and “deglobalization”. The COVID-19 pandemic has reinforced this impression. To overcome the deadlock in the Doha round negotiations at WTO the major players in world trade are negotiating or have already implemented several free trade agreements (FTAs) as a second-best solution. We analyze within a common framework nine mega FTAs, some of them are already in effect, others will be enacted soon. Overall, not the big players in world trade, the EU and the United States win by a simultaneous implementation of the nine FTAs. Japan would be the winner because it participates in four combinations (overlaps) of FTAs: EU-Japan, USA-Japan, CPTPP and RCEP. The United States hardly gain from further globalization. Similarly, the EU27 cannot profit much from further globalization.

Keywords: Globalization; International trade policy; Model simulations (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C54 C68 F13 F60 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:jpolmo:v:44:y:2022:i:3:p:653-674

DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2022.05.003

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