Can dimensional reduction technology make better use of the information of uncertainty indices when predicting volatility of Chinese crude oil futures?

Xiang Yan, Jiancheng Bai, Xiafei Li and Zhonglu Chen

Resources Policy, 2022, vol. 75, issue C

Abstract: In this paper, we try to forecast the volatility of Chinese crude oil futures (COF) using multiple economic policy uncertainty indicators. MIDAS-RV model is combined with the principal component analysis (PCA), scaled PCA (SPCA) and partial least squares (PLS) techniques in this work, construct the newly MIDAS-RV-PCA, MIDAS-RV-PLS and MIDAS-RV-SPCA models, their prediction performance is compared with the common combination forecasting methods. The in-sample estimation analysis on MIDAS-RV-X models show the that it is necessary to consider multiple economic policy uncertainty indices when predicting the Chinese COF volatility and the in-sample analysis on dimensionality reduction model further demonstrate the rationality of using dimensionality reduction techniques. The out-of-sample evaluation results show that the MIDAS-RV-SPCA is a superior model when forecasting the short-term volatility of Chinese COF using multiple economic policy uncertainty indicators, especially during the periods of high volatility and COVID-19 pandemic. The results also indicates that the DMSPE(0.9) method in the combination forecasting method shows its superior forecasting ability in long-term volatility of Chinese COF, especially during the low volatility and pre-pandemic period.

Keywords: Chinese crude oil futures; Realized volatility forecasting; Economic policy uncertainty indicators; Dimensional reduction technology (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C32 C53 G17 Q47 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (15)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:jrpoli:v:75:y:2022:i:c:s0301420721005286

DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2021.102521

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