Quantile connectedness between oil price shocks and exchange rates
Zaghum Umar and
Ahmed Bossman
Resources Policy, 2023, vol. 83, issue C
Abstract:
Oil is an energy resource and a driver of global economic activities. The increasing need for oil amplifies its trade and places pressure on the current account balance, which causes exchange rate fluctuations. We transcend the mean-based connectedness measures to explore the oil shocks-exchange rates nexus from an asymmetric perspective. With daily data from 07-03–1996 to 22-08-2022, we analyse the quantile dynamic spillovers between oil price shocks and exchange rates of oil-exporting and oil-importing economies. We show that shock sizes shape the system returns and volatility connectedness, with lower-tailed and upper-tailed shocks having a greater influence on the system connectedness than shocks modelled at the conditional median. By demonstrating asymmetry, the findings emphasise that for a detailed comprehension of the oil shocks-exchange rates connectedness under extreme shocks, it is necessary to go beyond mean-based connectedness metrics. The implications of our findings are important for investors, policymakers, and practitioners.
Keywords: Oil price shocks; Exchange rates; Quantile spillovers; Quantile connectedness; Brexit; COVID-19; Russia-Ukraine (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C58 F31 F41 G01 G10 G11 G15 Q43 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:jrpoli:v:83:y:2023:i:c:s0301420723003690
DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2023.103658
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