Mapping the path forward: A prospective model of natural resource depletion and sustainable development

Fayssal Ayad

Resources Policy, 2023, vol. 85, issue PA

Abstract: This paper introduces a sustainable development model of natural resource depletion that quantifies the optimal relationship between the two. Adopting a nested constant elasticity-of-substitution production function with easy substitution between capital and natural resource depletion, the derived model that was simulated prospectively for the time horizon 2020–2100 reveals a non-linear pattern of natural resource depletion, with a minimum of 0.735 million tons, projected for the year 2100. Sustainable development exhibits a quasi-inverse U shape, raising questions about the long-term sustainability of sustainable development. The model predicts two distinct relationships between sustainable development and natural resource depletion, depending on the existence of a 6 billion tons threshold for natural resource depletion. Supported by the Regression Discontinuity Design, a positive relationship was established below the threshold point in opposition to a negative association above this cutoff level. This model is a valuable tool for policymakers to monitor and inform sustainable development policies with regard to natural resource depletion.

Keywords: Sustainable development; Natural resource depletion; Nested CES production function; Prospective modeling; Regression discontinuity design (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301420723007274
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:jrpoli:v:85:y:2023:i:pa:s0301420723007274

DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2023.104016

Access Statistics for this article

Resources Policy is currently edited by R. G. Eggert

More articles in Resources Policy from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().