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Pandemics and cities: Evidence from the Black Death and the long-run

Remi Jedwab, Noel D. Johnson and Mark Koyama

Journal of Urban Economics, 2024, vol. 139, issue C

Abstract: The Black Death killed 40% of Europe’s population between 1347 and 1352, making it one of the largest shocks in the history of mankind. Using a novel dataset that provides information on spatial variation in plague mortality at the city level, as well as various identification strategies, we explore the short-run and long-run impacts of Black Death mortality on city growth. On average, cities recovered their pre-plague populations within two centuries. However, aggregate convergence masked heterogeneity in urban recovery. Both of these facts are consistent with populations returning disproportionally to locations endowed with more rural and urban fixed factors of production. Land suitability and natural and historical trade networks played a vital role in recovery. Our study highlights the role played by the Black Death and physical and economic geography in determining the relative size of European cities.

Keywords: Localized shocks; Path dependence; Urban resilience; Pandemics and cities; Urbanization; Economic geography; Urban mortality; Black death (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: J11 J61 N93 O18 R11 R12 R19 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:juecon:v:139:y:2024:i:c:s0094119023000980

DOI: 10.1016/j.jue.2023.103628

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